Tuesday, September 02, 2008

Where rewards are risk free

Indiabulls’ diversification into unrelated businesses could hamper its stock broking business
The growth trajectory of the Indian insurance sector is all set to soar high. All thanks to liberalisation, competition and now diversification that has forced biggies in the financial domain to look towards this highly untapped sector with great interest. No doubt, its low penetration level (at 3% of the GDP) coupled with the fact that only 20% of the total insurable Indians have a life insurance cover provide players a perfect launch pad for growth. Considering the fact, broking firm Indiabulls, which entered the fray recently through a joint venture (74:26) with French insurance major Societe Generale, aims to tap 2-3% of the domestic life insurance market by 2010. A good move when the thriving insurance sector (growing at a CAGR of 175%) is all set to reach Rs.2 trillion by 2010 from Rs.500 billion at present (Assocham). Even their target to collect Rs.10 billion as premium in their first year and Rs.50 billion in next three years looks achievable when one takes into account expected growth of 140% in the private sector insurance business.

But, as Indiabulls diversifies into large scale growth areas, one is left pondering on the fate of the mother business of securities? “Diversifying into high value added products and services is another way to maintain our leadership position,” is what Sameer Gehlaut, CEO, Indiabulls has to say. As regulations don’t allow a capital market arm in the insurance business, Indiabulls necessarily will have to demerge its stock broking business. However, the primary question doing the rounds is whether or not their diversification into related as well as unrelated business domains along with such demergers will finally pay off.

Actually, there is another critical logic besides maintaining leadership. The company has been focusing on building multiple businesses to mitigate cyclicality in earnings and as the demand for financial products grows, Indiabulls is further expected to unlock the value of the securities business. While all these seem to be good, the company has to be wary of the extremely competitive insurance sector, where there is little scope for product differentiation in insurance.

Certainly their real estate venture has been doing well (thanks to expected sectoral CAGR of 25-30% over the next five years); but what about insurance? “We have a strong distribution network and this will help us operate on a large scale with efficiency,” remarks a company official. Also Societe Generale, its partner, is not new to the Indian landscape; its long standing JV with SBI can be leveraged by the new entity. In fact, the company is planning to be amongst the top three by 2010. Comments S. Rao, Sr. Analyst, Arihant Capital, “they plan to emerge as an integrated financial service provider. Considering their distribution network and experience with Max New York, diversifying into insurance is definitely a rational decision.” Insurance is capital intensive, but for Indiabulls, whose PAT has witnessed a y-o-y growth of 82%, it shouldn’t be a problem. Even analysts are betting big on Indiabulls’ insurance business and seem to be keenly looking forward to their other proposed new ventures.

Still, Indiabulls must tread with caution. With well established incumbents and many more queuing in, even this relatively mundane (as compared to their stock broking business) insurance sector can offer many more thrills than they assume they are ready for.

For Complete IIPM Article, Click on IIPM Article

Source :
IIPM Editorial, 2008
An IIPM and Professor Arindam Chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist) Initiative

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Wednesday, August 27, 2008

Jostling with jehad

India, Iran & Israel must come together for Pakistan
Even a school kid should be able to tell what the biggest foreign policy challenge for India is at the moment. It is a challenge that will determine the future of India – good, bad or ugly – for the next 50 years or so. The challenge is tackling an imploding Pakistan. The savage assassination of Benazir Bhutto clearly shows that either the military regime led by General Pervez Musharaff was instrumental in ordering her execution, or Musharaff is no longer capable of reining the Jehadi monsters that were unleashed by the late General Zia-ul Haq. Either way, India and the world face the frightening prospect of a rogue nation, its institutions and its nuclear weapons falling into Jehadi hands. Make no mistake: were that to happen, the first target will be an Indian city because the Indian establishment has repeatedly proven that it is a ‘soft state’ that meekly shrugs its shoulders and accepts terrorist attacks, which are implemented with impunity.

Forget the people of Pakistan and their dreams of a democracy and their goodwill towards their Indian neighbours. Forget the ability of the United States administration to even bring in a semblance of sham democracy in Pakistan. Benazir was the ace in the hole for the discredited and battered Bush Administration and she has simply been blown away. In any case, the average Pakistani – not to speak of the Jehadis – is so infuriated with the double standards of Uncle Sam that the United States simply cannot influence any event there anymore; unless it chooses to do it with missiles, tanks and soldiers. Forget the ability of the Chinese Government to rein the rogue state that Pakistan has become. Jehadis are now systematically targetting Chinese citizens working in Baluchistan and those days are not far off when the Jehadis will treat China, the way they treat America and Americans at the moment.

The Indian foreign policy establishment has no choice but to start a serious dialogue with two countries – both implacable foes of each other at the moment. The first one is Iran that stands to gain most from the nuclear export racket that Pakistan is ‘clandestinely’ running. The other is the only Jewish state in the world, Israel. In the entire West Asia, it is Israel that has the most to fear from an imploding and Jehadi Pakistan, mesmerised by the malevolent spell of the al-Qaeda. And Iran is a Shia state while the majority Sunnis in Pakistan are making a spectator sport of butchering fellow Shias. Sure America, China and Russia will play a big role; but it is only India, Israel and Iran that have the biggest stakes in saving Pakistan from itself. The alternative, quite frankly, is Armageddon of the type never seen before.

For Complete IIPM Article, Click on IIPM Article

Source :
IIPM Editorial, 2008
An IIPM and Professor Arindam Chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist) Initiative

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Tuesday, August 26, 2008

The Re-Musketeers

Globally, there’s no concrete evidence on whether political parties got re-elected (or elected) on the back of governance issues; at the moment, it’s an open debate, says A. Sandeep

A utopian world would have been one in which globally, all governments got re-elected or elected only on the basis of their performance on various governance indicators. Such indicators, as defined by The World Bank, include accountability with respect to civil liberties, political stability, effectiveness of the government, corruption, and the rule of law. India’s former President, A.P J. Abdul Kalam agrees, and feels that “when a political leader performs in a state and realises economic prosperity of the state using development politics, he or she will definitely succeed in getting re-elected.” Utopian is what we mentioned, and many pockets of global politics, like social relationships, are a million miles away from this logic.

Good governance is supposed to directly reflect on a contry’s development, both economically and socially. Expectably, countries that have thrived on religious fundamentalism have seen only a ghost of a relation between a political party’s contribution to growth and development, and the chances of the party getting elected. Distinguished political analyst, George C. Edwards, Editor, Presidential Studies Quarterly, explains, “Religious faith is important as a qualification for office in many parts of the world and is the source of conflict in southern Asia, the Middle East, Northern Ireland and elsewhere too. Even social issues like abortion are directly connected with religion.”

The Palestine issue is one telling example, with many pockets in West Asia mirroring the situation. Aly Fayyad, the spokesperson for Hezbollah’s Political wing, thinks that “development is neither an election plank nor of primary concern in West Asia. To win an election solely based on the development plank is just impossible. Here, we’re more concerned about issues like terrorism, Arab Nationalism and relocation of refugees.” But don’t these nations fall short on various development indices? “No, it does not necessarily mean that we are an underdeveloped lot. Countries like Lebanon, Jordan, Turkey, Yemen and Iran can give most of the so-called developed countries of South and South East Asia a run for their money. We fare better than most of them even on UNDP’s Human Development Index scale.” So, in countries that are plagued with terrorism and instability, development can happen although it may not be on the main electoral agenda.

y this mentality, Europe stands divided. Alina Mungio-Pippidi, celebrated political analyst at Scoala Nationala de Stiinte Politice si Administrative, Bucharest, says, “It is pretty difficult to club Europe in one league. While in Western Europe, people do give more importance to issues such as economic policy, the same cannot be said of Eastern Europe; issues in the latter region are more related to race and ethnicity that play a role in election results.”

Truly so, while countries like Finland – ranked by The World Bank amongst the global top three on various governance factors – might stand pristinely tall, countries like Poland are ready to take the hit. In 2005, the fundamentalist grandiloquent Kaczynski twin brothers in Poland came to power; one became President and the other Prime Minister. Though the supposed election promise was fighting ‘crime and corruption’, they actually came to power on nationalistic rhetoric like protecting Poland from the beast that is EU, and visible church driven hyperbole like opposing gay marriage, abortion, and promoting family values in an obsessively Catholic country. But interestingly, the same Polish people threw out the party from power in late 2007 because of minimal change on development front. But at the same time, in countries like Netherlands and Denmark, as Alina confirms, “Issues other than good governance – immigration and xenophobia – are increasingly gaining grounds, with recent election results being scary.” Noelia Rodrigues, Governance Expert, John F Kennedy School of Government, added her take on the situation in the West and especially in the US, “In the West, development has been the most important election plank. We have voted here on issues such as medical policy, insurance policy, and labour policy. A party that has neglected these has been bound to suffer defeat.”
For Complete IIPM Article, Click on IIPM Article

Source :
IIPM Editorial, 2008
An IIPM and Professor Arindam Chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist) Initiative

Read these article :-
ZEE BUSINESS BEST B SCHOOL SURVEY
B-schooled in India, Placed Abroad (Print Version)
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Monday, August 25, 2008

Engineering change...

Nitish Kumar aims to draw Bihar out of current mess

I t had always been his desire to take command of Bihar administration. Nitish Kumar, who had been at helm in various ministries at the Central Government, finally realised his dream in 2005, when NDA finally emerged as the victorious combination in the November elections. Nitish had earlier got an opportunity to get ensconced on the CM’s chair in 2000, however, this lasted only for seven days, when Laloo Prasad Yadav, his erstwhile friend, snatched away the opportunity from him. Earlier in 2004 too the opportunity had eluded Nitish by a whisker, when the President’s rule was finally declared in the state. A civil engineer by profession, Nitish has image of honest politician. During the days of Emergency in the 1970s, following the call from Jai Prakash Narayan, Nitish had plunged himself into politics. From 1974-77, he remained in the forefront of student politics in Bihar. In 1974, he was jailed under the Maintenance of Internal Security Act (MISA).

Born in a lower middle class family, Nitish has not had the privilege of using the lift to reach the position of Chief- Minister. He was first elected to Bihar Assembly in 1985; after four years he reached the portals of Lok Sabha. His term in Lok Sabha started on a happy note. He became the Agriculture Minister in VP Singh’s Cabinet. Nitish was able to preserve his seat in 1991, 10th Lok Sabha elections too. In 1996, he reached Lok Sabha for a third consecutive time in a row and became the Union Minster for Railways & Surface Transport in 1998. He remained in the ministry for a year. In 1999, he resigned from the ministry owning moral responsibility for the rail accident, which claimed roughly 200 lives. This step of Nitish was praised by one and all across the party lines. From 2001 to 2004, he again handled the Railway Ministry. During his tenure at the ministry, he shifted the headquarters of Eastern Railway from Kolkata to Hajipur in Bihar. Although this move of his, attracted much flak, but the leader withstood his ground with great courage.

Over past two years, Bihar under stewardship of Nitish, is on the move towards development. After 15 years of Laloo’s misrule, the public in Bihar expects far too much from their current Chief Minister. These high expectations have added additional pressure on Nitish Government to perform in an expeditious manner. “The situation on ground is undergoing a transformation, but for the change to fully visible, we will have to wait a bit. This is litmus test for Nitish,” says a well known social scientist Shuwaal Gupta.

Addressing the public on the occasion of two-year completion of his government, Nitish said, “Bihar will become one the most favoured destination for investors.” Already, some winds of change are beginning to be felt in Bihar.


FOOTSTEPS

l Birth: March 1, 1951 (Bakhtiarpur, Bihar)
l 1974: Jailed under MISA
l 1985: Elected to Bihar Legislative Assembly
l 1990: Elected to Lok Sabha & joined the Union Cabinet as Agriculture Minister
l 1998: Railways & Surface Transport Minister
l 2005: Chief Minister of Bihar

For Complete IIPM Article, Click on IIPM Article

Source :
IIPM Editorial, 2008
An IIPM and Professor Arindam Chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist) Initiative

Read these article :-
ZEE BUSINESS BEST B SCHOOL SURVEY
B-schooled in India, Placed Abroad (Print Version)
IIPM in Financial times (Print Version)
IIPM makes business education truly global (Print Version)
The Indian Institute of Planning and Management (IIPM)
IIPM Campus

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Friday, August 22, 2008

Honeymoon...

...as a birth control measure
In order to check the escalating population in Satara district, Maharashtra Government had come up with new policy of marriage counseling and family planning for couples. Satara with a population of 3 million, records 25,000 weddings annually. Moreover, about 90% of newlyweds conceive during their first year of marriage. The policy entitles newlyweds to receive “Honeymoon Package” of Rs.5,000 if they delay childbearing for a year, and Rs.7,500 if delayed by two. The newlyweds need to register with the government healthcare centre and will then be provided with marriage counseling, free contraceptives and advice on childcare etc. The registered couples will undergo medical check-ups every three months, to make sure that no unprotected sexual activity is going on. The district authorities targets 20% of the couples to enroll for the scheme which would lead to delaying the birth of 5,000 babies.

This indeed is an innovative and intelligent move. However, what seems to be overlooked is that the problem is not with having a child early but having child often. Along with these monetary incentives, if proper counseling about benefits of small family are provided, then the scheme will be much more effective at the national level too.

For Complete IIPM Article, Click on IIPM Article

Source :
IIPM Editorial, 2008
An IIPM and Professor Arindam Chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist) Initiative

Read these article :-
ZEE BUSINESS BEST B SCHOOL SURVEY
B-schooled in India, Placed Abroad (Print Version)
IIPM in Financial times (Print Version)
IIPM makes business education truly global (Print Version)
The Indian Institute of Planning and Management (IIPM)
IIPM Campus

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