Monday, September 29, 2008

Hey! Will someone now please talk governance?

Kipling thought more like the ruling power would, Democrats need to follow suit

Browsing through a used-book store Friday – in the Milwaukee airport, of all places – I came across a 1981 paperback collection of George Orwell's essays. That's how I happened to reread his 1942 essay on Rudyard Kipling. Given Orwell's perpetual ability to elucidate, one shouldn't be surprised that its argument would shed light – or so it seems to me – on contemporary American politics. Orwell offers a highly qualified appreciation of the then (and still) politically incorrect Kipling. He insists that one must admit that Kipling is "morally insensitive and aesthetically disgusting." Still, he says, Kipling "survives, while the refined people who have sniggered at him seem to wear so badly." One reason is Kipling "identified himself with the ruling power & not with the opposition."

"In a gifted writer," Orwell remarks, "this seems to us strange and even disgusting, but it did have the advantage of giving Kipling a certain grip on reality." Kipling "at least tried to imagine what action and responsibility are like." For, Orwell explains, "The ruling power is always faced with the question, 'In such and such circumstances, what would you do?', whereas the opposition is not obliged to take responsibility or make any real decisions." Furthermore, "where it is a permanent and pensioned opposition, as in England, the quality of its thought deteriorates accordingly." If I may vulgarise the implications of Orwell's argument a bit: substitute Republicans for Kipling and Democrats for the opposition, and you have a good synopsis of the current state of US politics. Having controlled the executive branch for 28 of the last 40 years, Republicans tend to think of themselves as the governing party – with some of the arrogance and narrowness that implies, but also with a sense of real-world responsibility. Many Democrats, on the other hand, no long even try to imagine what action & responsibility are like. They do, however, enjoy support of many refined people who snigger at the sometimes inept & ungraceful ways of Republicans. (And, if I may say so, the quality of thought of the Democrats' academic & media supporters – a permanent & as it were, pensioned opposition – seems to me to have deteriorated as Orwell would have predicted).


The Democrats won control of Congress in November 2006, thanks in large part to President Bush''s failures in Iraq. Then they spent the next year seeking to ensure that he couldn''t turn those failures around. Democrats were "against" the war and the surge. That was the sum and substance of their policy. They refused to acknowledge changing facts on the ground, or to debate the real consequences of withdrawal and defeat. It was, they apparently thought, the Bush administration, not America, that would lose. The 2007 congressional Democrats showed what it means to be an opposition party that takes no responsibility for the consequences of the choices involved in governing. So it continues in 2008. The director of the Central Intelligence Agency, Gen. Michael Hayden, director of national intelligence, retired Vice Adm. Mike McConnell, and the attorney general, the former federal judge Michael Mukasey, are highly respected, non-political officials with little in way of partisanship or ideology in their backgrounds. They have all testified, under oath, that in their judgments, certain legal arrangements regarding surveillance abilities are important to our national security.

Not all Democrats have refused to listen. In the Senate, Jay Rockefeller, chairman of the Intelligence Committee, took seriously the job of updating the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act in light of technological changes and court decisions. His committee produced an impressive report, and, by a vote of 13-2, sent legislation to the floor that would have preserved the government''s ability to listen to foreign phone calls and read foreign e-mail that passed through switching points in the US. The full Senate passed the legislation easily – with a majority of Democrats voting against, and Sens. Obama and Clinton indicating their opposition from the campaign trail. But the Democratic House leadership balked – particularly at the notion of protecting from lawsuits, companies that had cooperated with the government in surveillance efforts after Sept. 11. McConnell repeatedly explained that such private-sector cooperation is critical to anti-terror efforts, in surveillance and other areas, and that it requires the assurance of immunity. "Your country is at risk if we can''t get the private sector to help us, and that is atrophying all the time," he said. But for the House Democrats, sticking it to the phone companies – and to the Bush administration – seemed to outweigh erring on the side of safety in defending the country.

To govern is to choose, a Democrat of an earlier generation, John F. Kennedy, famously remarked. Is this generation of Democrats capable of governing?

For Complete IIPM Article, Click on IIPM Article

Source :
IIPM Editorial, 2008
An IIPM and Professor Arindam Chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist) Initiative

Read these article :-
ZEE BUSINESS BEST B SCHOOL SURVEY
B-schooled in India, Placed Abroad (Print Version)
IIPM in Financial times (Print Version)
IIPM makes business education truly global (Print Version)
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Tuesday, September 23, 2008

BSE’s market capitalisation

No doubt, BSE’s market capitalisation has increased by a whopping 102.3% between April 2007 and December 2007, but volatility too has increased at a staggering pace (the coefficient of variation, which measures volatility, rose to 15 from 9.7 during the same period). If you add to this the popular perception that this year’s Budget, being the last one for the current regime before the general election in 2009, would be generally populist, you have the mother of all gorillas. So, while it is difficult to predict the short-term behaviour of the market, experts still believe that over the next 12 months, the Sensex would be trading about 15-20% higher than the current levels of 17,000-18,000, which should be in-line with India Inc.’s earnings growth. Affirms Hitesh Agrawal, Head, Research, Angel Broking to B&E, “The Sensex is trading currently at 14-15X the FY 2010 expected earnings of its constituent companies, which is reasonable considering our expected 8-9% GDP growth.”

As such, industry experts seem optimistic about the long-term growth of the market. “With estimated GDP growth at around 9%, and inflation contained within 5%, there is little doubt about the future of the Indian bourses. Over a long term of 4-5 years, a Sensex of 50,000 is also possible. We believe that Sensex could scale the 25,000 mark in FY 2009,” says an optimistic Chakraborty of Religare.

But then, there are reports from Goldman Sachs that have maintained an underweight on India. Goldman Sachs estimates valuation support at 15X P/E – a 20% downside or a range-bound market by end-2008. And there are many who feel that the Sensex would hover between a band, without any major gain or fall. (These were the same experts who had correctly predicted when the Sensex was over 21,000 points that a deep correction could force the index down to 16,000. And which happened.)

However, one obvious question still lags. What about the future of forthcoming IPOs, after the post-listing price debacle witnessed in the case of Reliance Power, and two companies pulling out their IPOs because of a lack of investors’ response? Would the recently-concluded and hugely-successful IPO of Rural Electrification Corporation hold water on listing? “As investors become risk averse, the fundamental valuation will become the basis of subscription. As long as the IPO pricing is justified, we believe that IPOs will be subscribed,” says Religare’s Chakraborty. “The participants now need to work more on their pricing strategy,” adds Ajay Parmar, Head, Research, Emkay Shares. One upside to the crash has been that the attractiveness of many stocks, which declined in the recent past, has increased. But from here onwards, would fundamentals, and not sentiments, drive the market? Market experts feel that investors should only do two things now – ‘Pray hard, and hope for the best!’

Interest(ing) times
For policy practitioners, the question concerning growth and its relationship with interest rate and inflation has always been of interest. As per the analysis of A. Vasudevan (former Executive Director, RBI), growth and interest rates are negatively related, which is statistically significant, whereas growth and inflation are positively related, but statistically insignificantly. If the GDP projections are anything to go by (8-9% for the coming year), it is apparent that India is facing the prospect of a slowdown, or slower growth in the coming fiscal. Inflation, currently pegged at 4.07%, much in the comfort zone of RBI, is still high by global standards. As the RBI Deputy Governor, Rakesh Mohan puts it, “Our inflation is still high by world standards, and it needs to be brought down further.” Kim Eng Tan (Credit Analyst, Standard & Poors) puts forth his views, “As economic growth slows and inflation rates stay relatively high in 2008, Asia’s central banks will face a policy dilemma.”

For Complete IIPM Article, Click on IIPM Article

Source :
IIPM Editorial, 2008
An IIPM and Professor Arindam Chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist) Initiative

Read these article :-
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B-schooled in India, Placed Abroad (Print Version)
IIPM in Financial times (Print Version)
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Monday, September 22, 2008

The Suspense Continues

Super Tuesday refused to throw up a winner for Democrats. SUTANU GURU analyses
When experience and chutzpah clash with charisma and vision, the outcome could still remain uncertain. That is precisely what the results of Super Tuesday have been indicating as 24 states voted in the primaries to choose the candidates for both the Republicans and the Democrats. In the Republican camp where George Bush and his pathetic legacy is an albatross around the neck of hopefuls, Senator John McCain has taken a decisive lead over his close rivals Mitt Romney and the deeply conservative Mike Huckabee, Though the two have refused to give up, most analysts contend that McCain will almost certainly be the Republican candidate for the November 2008 Presidential elections.

But most eyes were not on the Republicans fighting over the tattered legacy of the unpopular Bush. They were focused on the two people who stand on the threshold of creating history in the United States of America. They are experienced Hillary Clinton and charismatic Barack Obama, who are in a neck to neck race to bag the Democratic nomination. Hillary gets help from the chutzpah and guile of the unparalleled ‘communicator’ Bill Clinton, while Obama now walks around with an aura and visions of a vision that seem to rival the tumultuous years of John F. Kennedy.

Super Tuesday could not decide whether it is Hillary or Obama who will be the Democratic candidate to take on McCain in the forthcoming elections. Hillary won the real big states like New York and California, while Obama all but swept the so-called Middle America with big wins in Georgia, Kansas and Idaho. No pundit is willing to stick her neck out and predict who the eventual winner will be. Guy Cecil, Clinton’s political field director, agreed. “This campaign is going to continue and will not end today,’’ he said. “We feel like we’ve had a good night, but this contest is far from over,” Cecil added.

However, ever since Obama surprised Hillary with a win during the first primary in Iowa, his campaign has been steadily gathering momentum and the double digit lead that Hillary used to enjoy till about a month ago has been reduced to virtually nothing. Most resonant and powerful was the open endorsement of the Obama candidacy given recently by the brother, daughter and nephew of the former President John F. Kennedy. The youth seem to be particularly taken in by the openness, clarity and vision being offered by Obama in contrast to more of the same kind of politics that Hillary seems to offer. “What was once inevitable is no longer inevitable,” said David Axelrod, Obama’s Chief Strategist. “What was once a lop-sided race is no longer lop-sided. The momentum has shifted.”

Yet, Obama cannot rest; nor can he afford to be complacent. A tidal wave of enthusiasm and endorsements after the Kennedy family supported him led many pundits to predict that Obama would sweep the big states like California and even give Hillary a run for her money in her home state New York. Obama’s campaign manager David Plouffe said the senator was in a “strong position to win the Democratic nomination,” and eyed contests next week in Maryland, Virginia and Washington DC. This seemed to be political wisdom till even a few hours before voting began. But the results – as usual – have surprised the pundits. Hillary has scored a big win over Obama despite support from big Hollywood stars like George Clooney. Of course, it becomes even more difficult to predict who will eventually will the Democratic nomination because the party has a complicated way of figuring out who will get how many delegates from each state. Unlike the Republican Party where the winner takes it all, the Democrats allot delegates to the candidates on the basis of the proportional share of the votes won by them. Till the time of going to the press, it appeared as if Hillary is slightly ahead with about 500 delegates while Obama is close behind with about 475 delegates. To eventually win the nomination and formally become the Democratic candidate, either Hillary or Obama will have to win over at least 2050 delegates across the country.

For Complete IIPM Article, Click on IIPM Article

Source :
IIPM Editorial, 2008

An IIPM and Professor Arindam Chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist) Initiative

Read these article :-
ZEE BUSINESS BEST B SCHOOL SURVEY
B-schooled in India, Placed Abroad (Print Version)
IIPM in Financial times (Print Version)
IIPM makes business education truly global (Print Version)
The Indian Institute of Planning and Management (IIPM)
IIPM Campus

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Saturday, September 20, 2008

Hamara bajaj

Similarly, he stuck on being a scooters’ manufacturer even as it became clear after Hero Honda’s meteoric rise that motorcycles were fast substituting scooters. Bajaj did experiment in the motorcycle segment with a tie-up with Japan’s Kawasaki, but didn’t give it too much attention. He thought that Indians would never be able to ditch the scooter in favour of the motorcycle. The inevitable happened, and Bajaj was forced to roll out the last Chetak recently. But did that deter Bajaj?

He bounced back with a vengeance. Zipping through the Indian roads, he suddenly became the king of high-powered bikes. While Hero Honda made motorcycles for the masses, Bajaj Auto ruled the high-end segment. Now, Bajaj Auto is going a step ahead, and like the Tata Group with its Indica and revolutionary Nano, is planning to launch a small car for the masses. As Chandran says, “The fact that an internationally-acclaimed manufacturer like Renault has tied up with Bajaj to make a $2,500 car speaks volumes for the talent, not to mention the R&D capabilities, at Bajaj Auto.”

Like many other family-owned Indian business houses, which have been rocked by family tensions and rivalries, Bajaj has faced the same problem. But he has tried to manage the crisis in a manner that it won’t really hurt the group’s performance. Moreover, he has ensured a smooth transition in Bajaj Auto with his son having emerged as the future leader. Bajaj has ensured a smooth succession planning, unlike several others like the Modis, who fought and brought their empire to ruin.

Even today, Bajaj has lost none of his fire. Even today, as he did through the second Bombay Club, he is fighting for nationalistic economic and business interests. A corporate patriotic to the core, Bajaj wants India to emerge as a socio-economic powerhouse in the global arena. But he doesn’t want it to happen at the expense of the country’s strategic interests.


As one of India’s brand ambassadors – especially in crucial economic forum like the World Economic Forum – he has repeatedly maintained that India should realise its global bargaining powers, and force the rest of the world to heed to the super market of over one billion people that the country has.

For instance, he doesn’t want India to cow down during free trade negotiations with ASEAN countries and China. If India allows cheap manufactured goods from those countries at zero or low duties, it should also bargain for free entry of its value-added products. Similarly, if India has to give in at multilateral fora, it should force the developed world to allow free flow of labour. Everything should be in the context of give and take. Hope, our political leaders are listening.

For Complete IIPM Article, Click on IIPM Article

Source :
IIPM Editorial, 2008
An IIPM and Professor Arindam Chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist) Initiative
Read these article :-
ZEE BUSINESS BEST B SCHOOL SURVEY
B-schooled in India, Placed Abroad (Print Version)
IIPM in Financial times (Print Version)
IIPM makes business education truly global (Print Version)
The Indian Institute of Planning and Management (IIPM)
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Tuesday, September 02, 2008

Where rewards are risk free

Indiabulls’ diversification into unrelated businesses could hamper its stock broking business
The growth trajectory of the Indian insurance sector is all set to soar high. All thanks to liberalisation, competition and now diversification that has forced biggies in the financial domain to look towards this highly untapped sector with great interest. No doubt, its low penetration level (at 3% of the GDP) coupled with the fact that only 20% of the total insurable Indians have a life insurance cover provide players a perfect launch pad for growth. Considering the fact, broking firm Indiabulls, which entered the fray recently through a joint venture (74:26) with French insurance major Societe Generale, aims to tap 2-3% of the domestic life insurance market by 2010. A good move when the thriving insurance sector (growing at a CAGR of 175%) is all set to reach Rs.2 trillion by 2010 from Rs.500 billion at present (Assocham). Even their target to collect Rs.10 billion as premium in their first year and Rs.50 billion in next three years looks achievable when one takes into account expected growth of 140% in the private sector insurance business.

But, as Indiabulls diversifies into large scale growth areas, one is left pondering on the fate of the mother business of securities? “Diversifying into high value added products and services is another way to maintain our leadership position,” is what Sameer Gehlaut, CEO, Indiabulls has to say. As regulations don’t allow a capital market arm in the insurance business, Indiabulls necessarily will have to demerge its stock broking business. However, the primary question doing the rounds is whether or not their diversification into related as well as unrelated business domains along with such demergers will finally pay off.

Actually, there is another critical logic besides maintaining leadership. The company has been focusing on building multiple businesses to mitigate cyclicality in earnings and as the demand for financial products grows, Indiabulls is further expected to unlock the value of the securities business. While all these seem to be good, the company has to be wary of the extremely competitive insurance sector, where there is little scope for product differentiation in insurance.

Certainly their real estate venture has been doing well (thanks to expected sectoral CAGR of 25-30% over the next five years); but what about insurance? “We have a strong distribution network and this will help us operate on a large scale with efficiency,” remarks a company official. Also Societe Generale, its partner, is not new to the Indian landscape; its long standing JV with SBI can be leveraged by the new entity. In fact, the company is planning to be amongst the top three by 2010. Comments S. Rao, Sr. Analyst, Arihant Capital, “they plan to emerge as an integrated financial service provider. Considering their distribution network and experience with Max New York, diversifying into insurance is definitely a rational decision.” Insurance is capital intensive, but for Indiabulls, whose PAT has witnessed a y-o-y growth of 82%, it shouldn’t be a problem. Even analysts are betting big on Indiabulls’ insurance business and seem to be keenly looking forward to their other proposed new ventures.

Still, Indiabulls must tread with caution. With well established incumbents and many more queuing in, even this relatively mundane (as compared to their stock broking business) insurance sector can offer many more thrills than they assume they are ready for.

For Complete IIPM Article, Click on IIPM Article

Source :
IIPM Editorial, 2008
An IIPM and Professor Arindam Chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist) Initiative

Read these article :-
ZEE BUSINESS BEST B SCHOOL SURVEY
B-schooled in India, Placed Abroad (Print Version)
IIPM in Financial times (Print Version)
IIPM makes business education truly global (Print Version)
The Indian Institute of Planning and Management (IIPM)
IIPM Campus

Top Articles on IIPM:-
IIPM to come up at Rajarhat
IIPM awards four Bengali novelists
IIPM makes business education truly global-Education-The Times of ...
The Hindu : Education Plus : Honour for IIPM
IIPM ranked No.1 B-School in India, Management News - By ...
IIPM Ranked No1 B-School in India
Moneycontrol >> News >> Press- News >> IIPM ranked No1 B-School in ...
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The Hindu Business Line : IIPM placements hit a high of over 2000 jobs
Deccan Herald - IIPM ranked as top B-School in India
India eNews - IIPM Ranked No1 B-School in India
IIPM Delhi - Indian Institute of Planning and Management New Delhi ...domain-b.com : IIPM ranked ahead of IIMs