The champions of democracy have always frowned upon the role political dynasties play in the polity. However, they are here to stay and the world needs to make peace with them. The emergence of Rahul Gandhi and Bilawal Zardari on the political scenes of India and Pakistan have come at a time when other countries in Asia too have shown similar trends. The dominance of Begum Khalida Zia and Sheikh Hasina Wajed in Bangladeshi politics, emergence of Megawati Sukarnoputri in Indonesia, and continued the two George Bushes in United States, Laurent and Joseph Kabila in Congo, are other examples worth mentioning.
Thursday, January 14, 2010
Wednesday, January 13, 2010
Different Strokes
Different people have different takes on the emergence of Twenty20 cricket. Some call it ‘pornography of cricket’ and others call it the ‘saviour of the game’. Whatever the point of view may be, there is no doubt that T20 has redefined the entertainment aspect of the game. As football and other international sports consumed less time that cricket, there was a need for a trimmer version of the game to suit the taste of the audiences from developed countries. With Indian Premier League (IPL), BCCI also tried to do a football with cricket and also succeeded in changing the format of the game. However, IPL and Twenty20 international games have a clash of interest and will definitely lead to either of them getting subdued. On the other hand, according to purists, this version of the game will lead to the death of genuine class and technique that have defined the game until now.
Monday, January 11, 2010
The race to the bottom
THOUGH LATIN AMERICAN ECONOMIES LIKE ARGENTINA, VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA HAVE SHOWN SOME RESILIENCE AGAINST THE OVERRIDING DOWNTURN IN THE RECENT PAST. BUT, WITH HUGE SOVEREIGN DEBTS AND THEIR GROWING INCAPABILITY TO SERVICE THEM AT A STANDARD RATE, THEY STILL STAND ON THE VERGE OF COLLAPSE, FEELS MANISH K. PANDEY…
They say easy money always fuels economies. Yes, it does, but can it forever? Latin American economies believe so quite passionately, and in their speedy race to the bottom based on a foxy premise, are on the verge of collapse. A closer look at the numbers and the state of utter economic shambles could well stun the reader! While with CPDs (cumulative probabilities of default) of 55.49% and 49.72%, Venezuela and Argentina respectively capture the second and third slot globally in the latest CMA rankings (of nations who have the highest probabilities of default), Colombia with CPD of 10.15% too has found itself a place in the list of countries who are steadily heading towards a default situation.
No doubt, a massive government spending in the first half of 2009 and a recently improved global economy have so far prevented these economies from a deeper downturn, but then how long? In fact, case by case examination of these three Latin American economies only suggests that they are heading towards a massive fall, smiles and conferences notwithstanding!
Though with a new debt swap in place, Argentine President Christina Fernandez de Kirchner plans to end the eight-year-long muddle that started from a massive default in 2001, but then, most of it seems inconsistent with the reality of macroeconomic indicators, and in some cases even ridiculous. To put it flatly, Argentina’s overall fiscal deficit has reached 2.2 billion pesos in September 2009 compared with a 2.2 billion peso surplus a year ago. In fact, September’s fiscal deficit is the largest so far this year, which guarantees the government will post its first annual deficit since 2002. So, in such a scenario, there is hardly any chance that the economy will escape the forthcoming financial tornado.
While Argentina’s fiscal spending grew 28.5% yoy in September and 27.6% through the first nine months of 2009, the total fiscal revenues increased by just 7.5% and 11.5% during the same period. Tax revenues alone (excluding social security and other non-tax receipts) have fallen by 1.8% in the first nine months – a drop of over 15% in real, inflation-adjusted terms. What’s more! The government has been unwilling to slow spending amid this year’s downturn. Reason: the 2011 presidential election is approaching and the Kirchner administration doesn’t want to compromise on its ‘flagging’ popularity.
They say easy money always fuels economies. Yes, it does, but can it forever? Latin American economies believe so quite passionately, and in their speedy race to the bottom based on a foxy premise, are on the verge of collapse. A closer look at the numbers and the state of utter economic shambles could well stun the reader! While with CPDs (cumulative probabilities of default) of 55.49% and 49.72%, Venezuela and Argentina respectively capture the second and third slot globally in the latest CMA rankings (of nations who have the highest probabilities of default), Colombia with CPD of 10.15% too has found itself a place in the list of countries who are steadily heading towards a default situation.
No doubt, a massive government spending in the first half of 2009 and a recently improved global economy have so far prevented these economies from a deeper downturn, but then how long? In fact, case by case examination of these three Latin American economies only suggests that they are heading towards a massive fall, smiles and conferences notwithstanding!
Though with a new debt swap in place, Argentine President Christina Fernandez de Kirchner plans to end the eight-year-long muddle that started from a massive default in 2001, but then, most of it seems inconsistent with the reality of macroeconomic indicators, and in some cases even ridiculous. To put it flatly, Argentina’s overall fiscal deficit has reached 2.2 billion pesos in September 2009 compared with a 2.2 billion peso surplus a year ago. In fact, September’s fiscal deficit is the largest so far this year, which guarantees the government will post its first annual deficit since 2002. So, in such a scenario, there is hardly any chance that the economy will escape the forthcoming financial tornado.
While Argentina’s fiscal spending grew 28.5% yoy in September and 27.6% through the first nine months of 2009, the total fiscal revenues increased by just 7.5% and 11.5% during the same period. Tax revenues alone (excluding social security and other non-tax receipts) have fallen by 1.8% in the first nine months – a drop of over 15% in real, inflation-adjusted terms. What’s more! The government has been unwilling to slow spending amid this year’s downturn. Reason: the 2011 presidential election is approaching and the Kirchner administration doesn’t want to compromise on its ‘flagging’ popularity.
Friday, January 08, 2010
Human neurochemistry
A clue may lie in human neurochemistry, since Terence McKenna accessed the information about 2012 when using an entheogenic mushroom, and the Maya used the same mushroom, which contains psilocybin – a compound closely related to dimethyltryptamine (DMT). Dr. Rick Strassman has recently confirmed that at birth, death, and during mystical experiences, the pineal gland in the centre of the human brain secretes DMT into the blood. Perhaps the Maya shamans, and the medicine men and priests of North & South America, were able to activate the secretion of DMT, and access some sort of global mega-mind – the developing consciousness of the Earth mother.
The 5,125-year 13-baktun cycle is exactly one eighth of the 41,000-year period of the “variation of obliquity” cycle (change in the angle of axis tilt) that is used to calculate ice-melt cycles. The baktun itself is 400 years long, which is the period of rotation of the Earth’s core, and thus invites the speculation that a geomagnetic reversal is on the cards for 2012. John Major Jenkins has made a strong case that the Maya were tracking the cycle of precession with their Long Count calendar. This is the 26,000-year cycle in which the Earth’s axis, which is 23.5 degrees off “vertical”, rotates in a circle, and is measured by the movement of constellations against the fixed positions of the rising equinox or solstice Sun. The winter solstice 2012 termination point of the 13-baktun cycle indicates a 36-year time window (1980 to 2016) in which the winter solstice Sun rises on the galactic equator. A Russian biochemist called Simon Shnoll has established that human biochemistry (and neurochemistry) is affected by the Earth’s orientation to the stars and by the sunspot cycle, (that is due to reach solar maximum in 2012), and another scientific paper published by James Spotiswoode indicates that psychic ability in humans increases massively when Galactic Centre is rising on the horizon. So this Galactic Alignment process could indicate a time-window that will see the first examples of an altered humanity – some think that we can expect an increased telepathic ability. If a geomagnetic reversal is involved, or an electro-magnetic pulse wave, there is a possibility that the functioning of electronic devices would be compromised, and pineal magnetite may be affected, causing an internal secretion of DMT. Others think that it could trigger mass out-of-body experiences or the rising of Kundalini – the fire serpent of Hindu lore that lies dormant at the base of the spine. This interpretation is reinforced by the recently published lost Aztec codex, The Pyramid of Fire, in which the feathered serpent god, Quetzalcoatl-Kukulcan is revealed to be the same as Kundalini, and is directly connected with 2012… hang onto your hats!
The 5,125-year 13-baktun cycle is exactly one eighth of the 41,000-year period of the “variation of obliquity” cycle (change in the angle of axis tilt) that is used to calculate ice-melt cycles. The baktun itself is 400 years long, which is the period of rotation of the Earth’s core, and thus invites the speculation that a geomagnetic reversal is on the cards for 2012. John Major Jenkins has made a strong case that the Maya were tracking the cycle of precession with their Long Count calendar. This is the 26,000-year cycle in which the Earth’s axis, which is 23.5 degrees off “vertical”, rotates in a circle, and is measured by the movement of constellations against the fixed positions of the rising equinox or solstice Sun. The winter solstice 2012 termination point of the 13-baktun cycle indicates a 36-year time window (1980 to 2016) in which the winter solstice Sun rises on the galactic equator. A Russian biochemist called Simon Shnoll has established that human biochemistry (and neurochemistry) is affected by the Earth’s orientation to the stars and by the sunspot cycle, (that is due to reach solar maximum in 2012), and another scientific paper published by James Spotiswoode indicates that psychic ability in humans increases massively when Galactic Centre is rising on the horizon. So this Galactic Alignment process could indicate a time-window that will see the first examples of an altered humanity – some think that we can expect an increased telepathic ability. If a geomagnetic reversal is involved, or an electro-magnetic pulse wave, there is a possibility that the functioning of electronic devices would be compromised, and pineal magnetite may be affected, causing an internal secretion of DMT. Others think that it could trigger mass out-of-body experiences or the rising of Kundalini – the fire serpent of Hindu lore that lies dormant at the base of the spine. This interpretation is reinforced by the recently published lost Aztec codex, The Pyramid of Fire, in which the feathered serpent god, Quetzalcoatl-Kukulcan is revealed to be the same as Kundalini, and is directly connected with 2012… hang onto your hats!
Wednesday, December 23, 2009
Rough road ahead
US and allies face tough questions while recommitting forces to the war effort in Afghanistan, says Zubair A Dar
A cursory look at the map showing the toll on United Kingdom’s
troops in Afghanistan clearly shows the challenge that the US-led North Atlantic Treaty Organization (Nato) forces face in this war ravaged country. The maximum number of casualties have occurred in southern provinces around Helmand and Kandahar – at least 223 deaths since the war began in 2001.
Facing elections in the coming year, the Gordon Brown-led Labour Party is finding it hard to reassure the United Kingdom’s public in general and the families of the troops in particular about the effectiveness of the war in stopping the threat from arriving in London. In a speech at the Royal College of Defence Studies in London, Brown stressed that Afghan campaign was "prosecuted out of necessity" as three-quarters of the terrorist activities that happen in Britain arose from these areas.
And this is one of the many factors that US President Barack Obama will have in mind while spelling out his policy on Afghanistan, the tone for which was set recently, when he announced his intention to "finish the job".
Though the process is likely to begin by sending more troops to Afghanistan to control Taliban resurgence before the final withdrawal begins, negotiation with the Taliban has not been entirely ruled out. Though the stated mission is to “dismantle and degrade their (al-Qaeda's and Taliban's) capabilities and destroy their networks”, there are strong indications that the Taliban can be a part of the final settlement that would see security responsibilities transferred to the Afghans.
The likely troop reinforcement comes weeks after the US and Nato commander in Afghanistan, General Stanley A. McChrystal, in a report warned that "failure to gain the initiative and reverse insurgent momentum in the near term risks an outcome where defeating the insurgency is no longer possible". McChrystal had sought 40,000 more troops for implementing his new strategy in Afghanistan that concentrated on protecting civilians rather than killing insurgents or controlling the territory.
It was following this report that the US President began a series of consultations – nine in all – with his war council that included Vice President Joe Biden, secretary of state Hillary Clinton, secretary of defense Robert Michael Gates, US special representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan ambassador Richard Holbrooke and US Commander in Afghanistan General Stanley McChrystal besides management and budget director Peter Orszag whose consultation is seen as a result of the budgetary concerns raised in recent weeks. While US war expenditure is likely to increase by as much as $30 billion to $40 billion per year, the McChrystal plan had warned that "inadequate resources will likely result in failure”.
Obama’s new strategy will have to negotiate many domestic and international pressures. In the recent months, the American and British public has viewed the Afghanistan war as “not winnable”. Voices within the US Democrats, who fear Obama’s association with a growingly unpopular war in an election year, oppose any major escalation of involvement in Afghanistan – their belief that the conflict is no longer central to US security.
A cursory look at the map showing the toll on United Kingdom’s
troops in Afghanistan clearly shows the challenge that the US-led North Atlantic Treaty Organization (Nato) forces face in this war ravaged country. The maximum number of casualties have occurred in southern provinces around Helmand and Kandahar – at least 223 deaths since the war began in 2001.Facing elections in the coming year, the Gordon Brown-led Labour Party is finding it hard to reassure the United Kingdom’s public in general and the families of the troops in particular about the effectiveness of the war in stopping the threat from arriving in London. In a speech at the Royal College of Defence Studies in London, Brown stressed that Afghan campaign was "prosecuted out of necessity" as three-quarters of the terrorist activities that happen in Britain arose from these areas.
And this is one of the many factors that US President Barack Obama will have in mind while spelling out his policy on Afghanistan, the tone for which was set recently, when he announced his intention to "finish the job".
Though the process is likely to begin by sending more troops to Afghanistan to control Taliban resurgence before the final withdrawal begins, negotiation with the Taliban has not been entirely ruled out. Though the stated mission is to “dismantle and degrade their (al-Qaeda's and Taliban's) capabilities and destroy their networks”, there are strong indications that the Taliban can be a part of the final settlement that would see security responsibilities transferred to the Afghans.
The likely troop reinforcement comes weeks after the US and Nato commander in Afghanistan, General Stanley A. McChrystal, in a report warned that "failure to gain the initiative and reverse insurgent momentum in the near term risks an outcome where defeating the insurgency is no longer possible". McChrystal had sought 40,000 more troops for implementing his new strategy in Afghanistan that concentrated on protecting civilians rather than killing insurgents or controlling the territory.
It was following this report that the US President began a series of consultations – nine in all – with his war council that included Vice President Joe Biden, secretary of state Hillary Clinton, secretary of defense Robert Michael Gates, US special representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan ambassador Richard Holbrooke and US Commander in Afghanistan General Stanley McChrystal besides management and budget director Peter Orszag whose consultation is seen as a result of the budgetary concerns raised in recent weeks. While US war expenditure is likely to increase by as much as $30 billion to $40 billion per year, the McChrystal plan had warned that "inadequate resources will likely result in failure”.
Obama’s new strategy will have to negotiate many domestic and international pressures. In the recent months, the American and British public has viewed the Afghanistan war as “not winnable”. Voices within the US Democrats, who fear Obama’s association with a growingly unpopular war in an election year, oppose any major escalation of involvement in Afghanistan – their belief that the conflict is no longer central to US security.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)